What is a moneyline?
The simplest bet in sports — pick who wins outright — and how its plus and minus prices translate into real probabilities.
A moneyline bet is a wager on which team or player wins outright, with no point spread involved. Prices are shown with plus and minus signs: a −150 favorite means you risk $150 to win $100, while a +130 underdog means a $100 bet wins $130. The bigger the number, the bigger the mismatch. Moneylines convert directly to implied probability, which makes them the cleanest odds to compare against a model's win-probability estimate.
A minus price is the favorite and shows what you must risk to win $100; a plus price is the underdog and shows what $100 wins. −200 implies a 66.7% chance (before vig); +200 implies 33.3%. To get the market's true estimate you de-vig both sides so they sum to 100%.
A moneyline just asks who wins; a point spread asks by how much. Moneylines shine on big underdogs (small risk, large payout) and in low-scoring sports where a spread is nearly meaningless. Because a moneyline maps one-to-one to win probability, it's also the market our win-probability models compare against most directly.
What is a moneyline bet?A moneyline is a bet on who wins outright, with no spread. A minus price marks the favorite (risk that amount to win $100); a plus price marks the underdog ($100 wins that amount).
How do I convert a moneyline to a probability?For a favorite −X, implied probability = X / (X + 100). For an underdog +Y, it is 100 / (Y + 100). De-vigging both sides normalizes them to sum to 100%.
When should I bet the moneyline instead of the spread?Moneylines are strongest on live underdogs, where a small stake wins a large payout, and in low-scoring sports where the spread is nearly meaningless.