We audited ourselves. We don't beat the closing line.
A formal, self-published audit of our own pick ledger — methodology, the complete settled record, and the one finding almost no pick service will ever put in writing.
Our public ledger stands at 235-181-15 — a 56.5% win rate, +45.43u to flat one-unit stakes across 431 settled picks (about +10.5% ROI). That is a profitable record. And yet our closing line value — the honest, variance-proof measure of whether we beat the market — runs roughly flat, at +0.39pp across 193 measured picks, beating the close only about 39% of the time.
Read together, the honest conclusion is this: our profit is real but sits well within what variance alone can produce, and we have not demonstrated a durable edge over the closing market. We could show you only the win rate and let you assume an edge. We don't, because a flat CLV stated plainly is worth more than an edge claim we can't back. Anyone in this industry claiming they beat the market should be able to show you their settled ledger and their CLV the same way. Most can't, and won't.
This is not a marketing summary — it is a query against our live ledger, the same source our automated honesty checker re-computes every public number from. The rules:
1. Every pick is logged before the game and settled after — win or lose. Nothing is added retroactively and nothing is deleted. Losing picks stay on the record permanently.
2. Flat staking. Every pick is one unit. The units figure cannot be inflated by quietly betting more on the picks we liked most — a common way records are padded.
3. CLV is measured no-vig open vs no-vig close. We de-vig both prices so the closing line value reflects genuine market movement, not the book's margin.
4. Settlement is daily and automated, graded at 8 AM ET, and reconciled against results. The numbers on this page are static snapshots of the live ledger as of 2026-07-25 and refresh as the ledger does.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Record (W-L-P) | 235-181-15 |
| Win rate | 56.5% |
| Units (flat 1u stake) | +45.43u |
| ROI | +10.5% |
| Settled picks | 431 |
| Closing line value (avg) | +0.39pp |
| CLV sample | 193 picks |
| Beat-the-close rate | 39.4% |
Live, non-cherry-picked source: the public ledger. Snapshot as of 2026-07-25. Cite as: Signal Labs Self-Audit, July 2026.
If a service can't beat the closing line, the most valuable thing it can do is tell you so — because it means the market is efficient and the one free edge left to any bettor is paying less vig by shopping for the best number. That is the same conclusion our education content reaches from the other direction. We'd rather you trust a flat number you can verify than a hot streak we dressed up as skill. When our data changes, this page changes with it.