Alabama — Model Predictions & Analytics

Alabama power rating, recent prediction performance and upcoming-game projections from the Signal Labs College Football engine.

SP+ Rating

14.8

2025 season

Last 10 Picks

1-1

2 settled

Total Logged Picks

across all bet types

Upcoming Alabama games (next 5)

No upcoming College Football games on the schedule feed yet. Check back closer to the season opener.

Trends & situational edges

day of week

Dominant on Saturday: 41-10 in last 5 seasons

Won 80% of 51 Saturday games since 2022-09-03

41-10 (80.4%)

primetime

Strong in primetime: 17-4 in last 5 seasons

Won 81% of 21 primetime games

17-4 (81.0%)

day of week

Dominant on Sunday: 5-1 in last 5 seasons

Won 83% of 6 Sunday games since 2022-10-09

5-1 (83.3%)

venue

Strong at home: 16-2 the last 3 seasons

Won 89% of 18 home games

16-2 (88.9%)

scoring profile

Averages 39.3 points scored, 21.4 allowed last season

5-2 record across 7 games in 2026

39.3 / 21.4

blowout

Wins by 14+ in 71% of wins the last 3 seasons

17 blowout wins out of 24 total wins

17/24 wins by 14+

Updated Oct 23, 2026 ET. Rolling 3-5 season window.

Recent Alabama model results (last 10)

Date (ET)	Pick	Odds	Result	Units
Sep 18, 2026	Alabama -19	-110	LOSS	-1.00u
Sep 11, 2026	Alabama -8.5	-112	WIN	+0.89u

Best Alabama wins

Date	Game	Pick	Odds	P/L
Sep 11, 2026	ALA @ UK	Alabama -8.5	-112	+0.89u

Worst Alabama losses

Date	Game	Pick	Odds	P/L
Sep 18, 2026	FSU @ ALA	Alabama -19	-110	-1.00u

How we model College Football

Our college football model combines an opponent-adjusted SP+-style rating with pace, success rate and explosiveness splits, weather effects on totals, and starter-availability weighting. We separate full-season and Week-5+ "mature" views because early-season noise is a known killer of CFB models.