NFL model. Elo, EPA, the opener.
Opponent-adjusted Elo, EPA per play on both sides of the ball, situational context, and market de-vig — with a focus on beating the opening number, not chasing the close. Every published pick settles on the public ledger, win or lose.
No NFL games right now — the season starts in September
The 2026 NFL season kicks off in September. When it does, this page fills with the weekly slate, Elo- and EPA-based model reads, and opener-CLV plays graded openly. Off-season, the model keeps re-fitting on last year's play-by-play so it is sharp for Week 1. NFL sides and totals are currently model-reads — they have shown value against the opening line but not against the close, and we say so.
Get notified when NFL goes live →Every team carries an opponent-adjusted Elo rating and rolling EPA-per-play profiles for offense and defense. The model projects a margin and total, converts to a fair no-vig price, and compares it to the market — with the sharpest read coming at the opening number, before the market has fully formed. That opener-versus-close gap is where the tracked value has shown up.
| Model input | Coverage | What it captures |
|---|---|---|
| Opponent-adjusted Elo | Rolling | Team strength, updated weekly |
| EPA per play (off/def) | Full History | Efficiency on both sides |
| Pass rush / protection | Full History | Trench and pressure edges |
| Situational (rest / travel / weather) | Per game | Context the market underrates |
| Opener CLV vs close | Every pick | Did we beat the number early |
Every pick is tagged by confidence so you always know what you are looking at — and only ◆◆◆ and up are published.
| Window | Record | Win % | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| All sports · since Apr 15, 2026 | — | — | — |
NFL-specific settled results join the ledger once the model fires in-season. Every pick is settled publicly — wins and losses. See every pick settled publicly →