College Football. Simulated play by play.
A play-level Monte Carlo engine built on college play-by-play data, a projection engine that lands about even with the Vegas number, a six-type player-prop suite, and roster-continuity adjustments for the transfer portal. Every published pick settles on the public ledger.
College football returns in late August
The 2026 CFB season opens in late August. This page then fills with the weekly slate — simulated matchups, projected scores, player-prop reads, and opener-CLV plays, all graded openly. Player props are where the model's edge is sharpest; spreads, totals and moneylines run as opener-CLV model reads rather than close-beating locks, and we label them that way.
Get notified when College Football goes live →The engine simulates each matchup at the play level thousands of times using college play-by-play data, producing a distribution of margins and totals rather than a single guess (projected-margin error lands in the same neighborhood as the Vegas line). Rosters are reconciled each preseason for portal moves and coaching changes so last year's grades still mean something. Player props are graded off the same simulation.
| Model input | Coverage | What it captures |
|---|---|---|
| Play-level Monte Carlo | Per game | Full margin/total distribution |
| Projection engine | Every game | Projected score, Vegas-class error |
| Player-prop suite (6 types) | Full slate | Passing, rushing, receiving props |
| Roster continuity | Preseason | Portal + coaching adjustments |
| Opener CLV vs close | Every pick | Value graded at the open |
Every pick is tagged by confidence so you always know what you are looking at — and only ◆◆◆ and up are published.
| Window | Record | Win % | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| All sports · since Apr 15, 2026 | — | — | — |
College Football-specific settled results join the ledger once the model fires in-season. Every pick is settled publicly — wins and losses. See every pick settled publicly →