Croatia

At 40, Modrić still orchestrates from deep with rare composure. Croatia's midfield press-resistance is the engine of any deep run — Kovačić and Pašalić provide the legs around him.

Based on our model output and tournament structure, Croatia's realistic upside in the 2026 World Cup is the Quarterfinal. Our pre-tournament simulation gives them a 24.5% chance of reaching the quarterfinals and a 13.2% chance of making the semifinals.

Ceiling reflects our editorial read of squad quality, manager fit, and bracket geometry; probabilities come strictly from the model.

For Croatia, the most interesting markets to monitor are:

• Outright winner: our model gives 3.01% — fair implied odds approximately 33-to-1. Compare to market price for value.
• Group winner: Group L's implied finish hinges on draw probabilities and goal difference; we publish per-match probabilities once group fixtures begin.
• Stage-reached markets: our P(reach SF) of 13.2% can be compared directly to "to reach semifinal" futures.
• Player props: Luka Modrić top-scorer, MVP, and assists markets warrant scrutiny — we'll publish props edges during the tournament.

We track every pick on our public record. No pick recommendations on this page — futures markets move fast and pricing depends on your book.