Norway vs France — Prediction & Preview

This Group I clash pits a resurgent Norway side against the heavy favorites France in Boston. The model projects France to win with 57.0% probability, with a projected scoreline of 0.9–1.6 in France's favor. While Norway enters as clear underdogs at 21.6%, the 21.4% draw probability signals a competitive encounter where defensive solidity could keep the Norwegians in contention.

Didier Deschamps will likely deploy France in a controlled 4-3-3 shape, leveraging the technical midfield trio of N'Golo Kanté, Aurélien Tchouaméni, and Adrien Rabiot to dominate possession and break down Norway's compact defensive structure. Ståle Solbakken will expect his side to sit deep, using a 5-4-1 or 4-5-1 formation anchored by Kristoffer Ajer and Leo Østigård to absorb pressure, with Martin Ødegaard tasked as the primary creative outlet on transitions. The midfield battle will revolve around whether Patrick Berg and Sander Berge can shield Norway's backline while disrupting France's build-up play. France's wing-backs—Théo Hernandez on the left and Jules Koundé on the right—will be crucial in stretching Norway wide, while Kylian Mbappé and Ousmane Dembélé will probe for spaces in behind. Norway's wing-backs, including Marcus Holmgren Pedersen, will need to track France's movements carefully. Set pieces could represent a rare avenue for Norway, with Jørgen Strand Larsen and Erling Haaland offering aerial presence in the box.

For France, Kylian Mbappé remains the focal point—his pace and directness will be the primary threat against a defense built to deny space. N'Golo Kanté's press resistance and positioning in midfield will be vital in maintaining control and preventing Norway's counter-attacks from gaining momentum. Ousmane Dembélé provides a secondary attacking outlet and ball-carrying threat from the flank. For Norway, Martin Ødegaard's distribution and ability to orchestrate play from deep will determine whether the side can execute an effective low-block strategy and transition efficiently. Erling Haaland offers a physical and technical presence in attack that could trouble France's back line on the break, while Sander Berge's work rate and positioning in midfield will be essential for breaking up France's rhythm and protecting the back four.