Iraq vs Norway — Prediction & Preview

This Group I clash pits Iraq against a heavily favored Norway side at Gillette Stadium. The model gives Norway a 75.4% win probability with a projected scoreline of 0.7–1.8 in Norway's favor, suggesting a controlled performance from the favorites. Iraq enters as a substantial underdog at 13.1%, with a draw at 11.6%, indicating Norway should dominate possession and create more clear-cut opportunities.

Norway under Ståle Solbakken will likely control the midfield through Martin Ødegaard's orchestration and the ball-winning presence of Sander Berge, looking to suffocate Iraq's creative outlets. Iraq's Graham Arnold will lean on a disciplined defensive shape, aiming to frustrate Norway's attacking rhythm and rely on transition moments through Ibrahim Bayesh and Amir Al-Ammari in midfield. The key tactical battle centers on Norway's width through the fullback areas—Kristoffer Ajer and Leo Østigård anchoring a solid backline—against Iraq's defensive compactness under Frans Putros and Rebin Sulaka. Set pieces may offer Iraq's best avenue for reward; Norway will seek to break lines through Alexander Sørloth and Erling Haaland's positioning in the box. Iraq's goalkeeper Jalal Hassan will face significant shot volume, while Norway's Ørjan Nyland should face limited pressure, allowing the defense to play a higher line.

For Norway, Martin Ødegaard's creative distribution and Sander Berge's midfield control will be essential to breaking down Iraq's block; both players must dictate tempo and convert territorial dominance into concrete chances. Erling Haaland offers the cutting-edge finishing threat—his movement in and around the box will test Iraq's defensive discipline, particularly the cover provided by Manaf Younis and Zaid Tahseen. For Iraq, Aymen Hussein carries the forward responsibility and must remain sharp on the counter, while Zidane Iqbal's energy in midfield will be vital to winning loose balls and triggering transitions. Ibrahim Bayesh will anchor Iraq's pressing structure, tasked with pressing Norway's deeper midfield to prevent smooth build-up play. Jalal Hassan's shot-stopping and distribution will be critical assets given the volume of Norway's attacking play throughout the match.