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Houston Texans vs Tennessee Titans — 2026-10-11

1:00 PM ETNissan StadiumNFLFINAL
Recap

Houston Texans beat Tennessee Titans 26-3, a 23-points margin. We projected Houston Texans 22.5-22.5 Tennessee Titans and gave Tennessee Titans a 59% win probability pre-game but the underdog flipped it.

Model prediction (pre-game)

Houston Texans
41%
Tennessee Titans
59%
Projected
Texans 22.5 - 22.5 Titans

What our model sees

Our NFL model rates Tennessee Titans as the more likely winner at 59%. The driver is a 0-point Elo gap (1500 vs 1500) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Houston Texans would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Recent form (last 10)

Houston Texans
No recent games on file.
Tennessee Titans
No recent games on file.

What we said before the game

Pre-game model: Houston Texans 41% / Tennessee Titans 59%. Projected Houston Texans 22.5 — 22.5 Tennessee Titans.

Our NFL model rates Tennessee Titans as the more likely winner at 59%. The driver is a 0-point Elo gap (1500 vs 1500) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Houston Texans would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

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