New England Patriots beat Buffalo Bills 29-26, a 3-points margin. We projected New England Patriots 22.5-22.5 Buffalo Bills and gave Buffalo Bills a 59% win probability pre-game but the underdog flipped it.
Our NFL model rates Buffalo Bills as the more likely winner at 59%. The driver is a 0-point Elo gap (1500 vs 1500) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. New England Patriots would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game model: New England Patriots 41% / Buffalo Bills 59%. Projected New England Patriots 22.5 — 22.5 Buffalo Bills.
Our NFL model rates Buffalo Bills as the more likely winner at 59%. The driver is a 0-point Elo gap (1500 vs 1500) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. New England Patriots would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
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