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Detroit Lions vs Arizona Cardinals — 2026-10-11

4:25 PM ETState Farm StadiumNFLFINAL
Recap

Detroit Lions beat Arizona Cardinals 45-21, a 24-points margin. We projected Detroit Lions 22.5-22.5 Arizona Cardinals and gave Arizona Cardinals a 59% win probability pre-game but the underdog flipped it.

Model prediction (pre-game)

Detroit Lions
41%
Arizona Cardinals
59%
Projected
Lions 22.5 - 22.5 Cardinals

What our model sees

Our NFL model rates Arizona Cardinals as the more likely winner at 59%. The driver is a 0-point Elo gap (1500 vs 1500) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Detroit Lions would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Recent form (last 10)

Detroit Lions
No recent games on file.
Arizona Cardinals
No recent games on file.

What we said before the game

Pre-game model: Detroit Lions 41% / Arizona Cardinals 59%. Projected Detroit Lions 22.5 — 22.5 Arizona Cardinals.

Our NFL model rates Arizona Cardinals as the more likely winner at 59%. The driver is a 0-point Elo gap (1500 vs 1500) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Detroit Lions would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

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