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Philadelphia Eagles vs Jacksonville Jaguars — 2026-10-11

9:30 AM ETTottenham Hotspur StadiumNFLFINAL
Recap

Jacksonville Jaguars beat Philadelphia Eagles 19-17, a 2-points margin. We projected Philadelphia Eagles 22.5-22.5 Jacksonville Jaguars and gave Jacksonville Jaguars a 59% win probability pre-game and our favorite held.

Model prediction (pre-game)

Philadelphia Eagles
41%
Jacksonville Jaguars
59%
Projected
Eagles 22.5 - 22.5 Jaguars

What our model sees

Our NFL model rates Jacksonville Jaguars as the more likely winner at 59%. The driver is a 0-point Elo gap (1500 vs 1500) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Philadelphia Eagles would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Recent form (last 10)

Philadelphia Eagles
No recent games on file.
Jacksonville Jaguars
No recent games on file.

What we said before the game

Pre-game model: Philadelphia Eagles 41% / Jacksonville Jaguars 59%. Projected Philadelphia Eagles 22.5 — 22.5 Jacksonville Jaguars.

Our NFL model rates Jacksonville Jaguars as the more likely winner at 59%. The driver is a 0-point Elo gap (1500 vs 1500) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Philadelphia Eagles would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

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