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Miami Dolphins vs Minnesota Vikings — 2026-10-04

4:05 PM ETU.S. Bank StadiumNFLFINAL
Recap

Minnesota Vikings beat Miami Dolphins 15-10, a 5-points margin. We projected Miami Dolphins 22.5-22.5 Minnesota Vikings and gave Minnesota Vikings a 59% win probability pre-game and our favorite held.

Model prediction (pre-game)

Miami Dolphins
41%
Minnesota Vikings
59%
Projected
Dolphins 22.5 - 22.5 Vikings

What our model sees

Our NFL model rates Minnesota Vikings as the more likely winner at 59%. The driver is a 0-point Elo gap (1500 vs 1500) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Miami Dolphins would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Recent form (last 10)

Miami Dolphins
No recent games on file.
Minnesota Vikings
No recent games on file.

What we said before the game

Pre-game model: Miami Dolphins 41% / Minnesota Vikings 59%. Projected Miami Dolphins 22.5 — 22.5 Minnesota Vikings.

Our NFL model rates Minnesota Vikings as the more likely winner at 59%. The driver is a 0-point Elo gap (1500 vs 1500) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Miami Dolphins would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

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