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Dallas Cowboys vs Houston Texans — 2026-10-04

1:00 PM ETReliant StadiumNFLFINAL
Recap

Dallas Cowboys beat Houston Texans 34-30, a 4-points margin. We projected Dallas Cowboys 22.5-22.5 Houston Texans and gave Houston Texans a 59% win probability pre-game but the underdog flipped it.

Model prediction (pre-game)

Dallas Cowboys
41%
Houston Texans
59%
Projected
Cowboys 22.5 - 22.5 Texans

What our model sees

Our NFL model rates Houston Texans as the more likely winner at 59%. The driver is a 0-point Elo gap (1500 vs 1500) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Dallas Cowboys would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Recent form (last 10)

Dallas Cowboys
No recent games on file.
Houston Texans
No recent games on file.

What we said before the game

Pre-game model: Dallas Cowboys 41% / Houston Texans 59%. Projected Dallas Cowboys 22.5 — 22.5 Houston Texans.

Our NFL model rates Houston Texans as the more likely winner at 59%. The driver is a 0-point Elo gap (1500 vs 1500) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Dallas Cowboys would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

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