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Indianapolis Colts vs Pittsburgh Steelers — 2026-10-11

1:00 PM ETAcrisure StadiumNFLFINAL
Recap

Pittsburgh Steelers beat Indianapolis Colts 34-22, a 12-points margin. We projected Indianapolis Colts 22.5-22.5 Pittsburgh Steelers and gave Pittsburgh Steelers a 59% win probability pre-game and our favorite held.

Model prediction (pre-game)

Indianapolis Colts
41%
Pittsburgh Steelers
59%
Projected
Colts 22.5 - 22.5 Steelers

What our model sees

Our NFL model rates Pittsburgh Steelers as the more likely winner at 59%. The driver is a 0-point Elo gap (1500 vs 1500) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Indianapolis Colts would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Recent form (last 10)

Indianapolis Colts
No recent games on file.
Pittsburgh Steelers
No recent games on file.

What we said before the game

Pre-game model: Indianapolis Colts 41% / Pittsburgh Steelers 59%. Projected Indianapolis Colts 22.5 — 22.5 Pittsburgh Steelers.

Our NFL model rates Pittsburgh Steelers as the more likely winner at 59%. The driver is a 0-point Elo gap (1500 vs 1500) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Indianapolis Colts would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

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