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Denver Broncos vs San Francisco 49ers — 2026-10-04

4:25 PM ETLevi's StadiumNFLFINAL
Recap

San Francisco 49ers beat Denver Broncos 24-14, a 10-points margin. We projected Denver Broncos 22.5-22.5 San Francisco 49ers and gave San Francisco 49ers a 59% win probability pre-game and our favorite held.

Model prediction (pre-game)

Denver Broncos
41%
San Francisco 49ers
59%
Projected
Broncos 22.5 - 22.5 49ers

What our model sees

Our NFL model rates San Francisco 49ers as the more likely winner at 59%. The driver is a 0-point Elo gap (1500 vs 1500) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Denver Broncos would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Recent form (last 10)

Denver Broncos
No recent games on file.
San Francisco 49ers
No recent games on file.

What we said before the game

Pre-game model: Denver Broncos 41% / San Francisco 49ers 59%. Projected Denver Broncos 22.5 — 22.5 San Francisco 49ers.

Our NFL model rates San Francisco 49ers as the more likely winner at 59%. The driver is a 0-point Elo gap (1500 vs 1500) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Denver Broncos would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

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