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Cincinnati Bengals vs Miami Dolphins — 2026-10-11

1:00 PM ETHard Rock StadiumNFLFINAL
Recap

Cincinnati Bengals beat Miami Dolphins 31-24, a 7-points margin. We projected Cincinnati Bengals 22.5-22.5 Miami Dolphins and gave Miami Dolphins a 59% win probability pre-game but the underdog flipped it.

Model prediction (pre-game)

Cincinnati Bengals
41%
Miami Dolphins
59%
Projected
Bengals 22.5 - 22.5 Dolphins

What our model sees

Our NFL model rates Miami Dolphins as the more likely winner at 59%. The driver is a 0-point Elo gap (1500 vs 1500) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Cincinnati Bengals would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Recent form (last 10)

Cincinnati Bengals
No recent games on file.
Miami Dolphins
No recent games on file.

What we said before the game

Pre-game model: Cincinnati Bengals 41% / Miami Dolphins 59%. Projected Cincinnati Bengals 22.5 — 22.5 Miami Dolphins.

Our NFL model rates Miami Dolphins as the more likely winner at 59%. The driver is a 0-point Elo gap (1500 vs 1500) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Cincinnati Bengals would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

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