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Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers — 2026-10-11

1:00 PM ETLambeau FieldNFLFINAL
Recap

Green Bay Packers beat Chicago Bears 31-7, a 24-points margin. We projected Chicago Bears 22.5-22.5 Green Bay Packers and gave Green Bay Packers a 59% win probability pre-game and our favorite held.

Model prediction (pre-game)

Chicago Bears
41%
Green Bay Packers
59%
Projected
Bears 22.5 - 22.5 Packers

What our model sees

Our NFL model rates Green Bay Packers as the more likely winner at 59%. The driver is a 0-point Elo gap (1500 vs 1500) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Chicago Bears would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Recent form (last 10)

Chicago Bears
No recent games on file.
Green Bay Packers
No recent games on file.

What we said before the game

Pre-game model: Chicago Bears 41% / Green Bay Packers 59%. Projected Chicago Bears 22.5 — 22.5 Green Bay Packers.

Our NFL model rates Green Bay Packers as the more likely winner at 59%. The driver is a 0-point Elo gap (1500 vs 1500) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Chicago Bears would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

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