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San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks — 2026-10-11

4:25 PM ETLumen FieldNFLFINAL
Recap

San Francisco 49ers beat Seattle Seahawks 32-29, a 3-points margin. We projected San Francisco 49ers 22.5-22.5 Seattle Seahawks and gave Seattle Seahawks a 59% win probability pre-game but the underdog flipped it.

Model prediction (pre-game)

San Francisco 49ers
41%
Seattle Seahawks
59%
Projected
49ers 22.5 - 22.5 Seahawks

What our model sees

Our NFL model rates Seattle Seahawks as the more likely winner at 59%. The driver is a 0-point Elo gap (1500 vs 1500) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. San Francisco 49ers would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Recent form (last 10)

San Francisco 49ers
No recent games on file.
Seattle Seahawks
No recent games on file.

What we said before the game

Pre-game model: San Francisco 49ers 41% / Seattle Seahawks 59%. Projected San Francisco 49ers 22.5 — 22.5 Seattle Seahawks.

Our NFL model rates Seattle Seahawks as the more likely winner at 59%. The driver is a 0-point Elo gap (1500 vs 1500) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. San Francisco 49ers would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

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