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Houston Rockets vs Dallas Mavericks — 2026-10-09

8:00 AM ETVenetian ArenaNBAFINAL
Recap

Houston Rockets beat Dallas Mavericks 135-117, a 18-points margin. We projected Houston Rockets 124.7-101.3 Dallas Mavericks and gave Houston Rockets a 87% win probability pre-game and our favorite held.

Model prediction (pre-game)

Houston Rockets
87%
Dallas Mavericks
13%
Projected
Rockets 124.7 - 101.3 Mavericks

What our model sees

Our NBA model rates Houston Rockets as the more likely winner at 87%. The driver is a 390-point Elo gap (1665 vs 1275) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Dallas Mavericks would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Recent form (last 10)

Houston Rockets
No recent games on file.
Dallas Mavericks
No recent games on file.

What we said before the game

Pre-game model: Houston Rockets 87% / Dallas Mavericks 13%. Projected Houston Rockets 124.7 — 101.3 Dallas Mavericks.

Our NBA model rates Houston Rockets as the more likely winner at 87%. The driver is a 390-point Elo gap (1665 vs 1275) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Dallas Mavericks would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

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