Home › NBA › Dallas Mavericks vs Houston Rockets

Dallas Mavericks vs Houston Rockets — 2026-10-11

6:00 AM ETVenetian ArenaNBAFINAL
Recap

Dallas Mavericks beat Houston Rockets 132-115, a 17-points margin. We projected Dallas Mavericks 101.3-124.7 Houston Rockets and gave Houston Rockets a 93% win probability pre-game but the underdog flipped it.

Model prediction (pre-game)

Dallas Mavericks
7%
Houston Rockets
93%
Projected
Mavericks 101.3 - 124.7 Rockets

What our model sees

Our NBA model rates Houston Rockets as the more likely winner at 93%. The driver is a 390-point Elo gap (1665 vs 1275) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Dallas Mavericks would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Recent form (last 10)

Dallas Mavericks
No recent games on file.
Houston Rockets
No recent games on file.

What we said before the game

Pre-game model: Dallas Mavericks 7% / Houston Rockets 93%. Projected Dallas Mavericks 101.3 — 124.7 Houston Rockets.

Our NBA model rates Houston Rockets as the more likely winner at 93%. The driver is a 390-point Elo gap (1665 vs 1275) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Dallas Mavericks would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Get our daily picks in Discord
All sports. Model-backed picks with edge math + analysis. See pricing ->

Signal Labs · model-driven betting analytics. Information shown is for analysis and entertainment only. Must be 21+ to wager where legal. Responsible gambling resources.