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Memphis Grizzlies vs Atlanta Hawks — 2026-10-05

7:00 PM ETState Farm ArenaNBAFINAL
Recap

Memphis Grizzlies beat Atlanta Hawks 132-123, a 9-points margin. We projected Memphis Grizzlies 103.5-122.5 Atlanta Hawks and gave Atlanta Hawks a 90% win probability pre-game but the underdog flipped it.

Model prediction (pre-game)

Memphis Grizzlies
10%
Atlanta Hawks
90%
Projected
Grizzlies 103.5 - 122.5 Hawks

What our model sees

Our NBA model rates Atlanta Hawks as the more likely winner at 90%. The driver is a 315-point Elo gap (1575 vs 1260) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Memphis Grizzlies would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Recent form (last 10)

Memphis Grizzlies
No recent games on file.
Atlanta Hawks
No recent games on file.

What we said before the game

Pre-game model: Memphis Grizzlies 10% / Atlanta Hawks 90%. Projected Memphis Grizzlies 103.5 — 122.5 Atlanta Hawks.

Our NBA model rates Atlanta Hawks as the more likely winner at 90%. The driver is a 315-point Elo gap (1575 vs 1260) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Memphis Grizzlies would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

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