Paraguay vs Australia — Prediction & Preview

Paraguay enters as the marginal favorite with a 38.0% win probability against Australia's 28.5%, with a 33.4% draw probability suggesting a competitive, tight encounter. The projected scoreline of Paraguay 1.3–1.2 Australia indicates an evenly matched Group D clash where margins will be thin. Both teams are expected to create meaningful chances, but Paraguay's slight edge in the model reflects deeper squad experience and tactical cohesion under Gustavo Alfaro.

Paraguay under Alfaro will likely deploy a compact defensive structure anchored by the aging but experienced center-back pairing of Gustavo Gómez and Fabián Balbuena, supported by Júnior Alonso and Omar Alderete in the fullback roles. The midfield will balance control through Andrés Cubas and Ramón Sosa, with Miguel Almirón operating as a creative outlet on the flank. Australia under Tony Popovic will press aggressively in phases, using Jackson Irvine as a disruptor in midfield while Harry Souttar and Cameron Burgess form the defensive spine. The tactical battle will hinge on whether Australia can suffocate Paraguay's transition play before Kaku and Antonio Sanabria find space to counter, or whether Paraguay's deeper defensive lines can absorb pressure and exploit set-piece opportunities where their experience shows. Mathew Ryan will be tested by long-range efforts, while Gatito Fernández may face sustained pressure from Awer Mabil and Mathew Leckie pressing high.

For Paraguay, Miguel Almirón's energy and positioning in midfield will be critical to breaking Australia's press and initiating attacks; at 32, his intelligence on the ball may prove decisive. Antonio Sanabria, the 30-year-old forward, offers a physical presence and leadership that could trouble Australia's back line during direct play. Julio Enciso, the 22-year-old winger, represents Paraguay's dynamism and creativity—his ability to drift into pockets and create half-spaces will be essential to unlocking the Australian defense. For Australia, Jackson Irvine's engine in midfield will determine whether the team can maintain possession in Paraguay's territory and restrict counter-attacking space. Mathew Leckie, despite his age at 35, remains a crafty presence on the wing and may exploit fatigue in Paraguay's full-back positions later in the match. Harry Souttar's aerial command will be vital in defending set pieces, where Paraguay will look to press their advantage with older, physical defenders.