Croatia vs Ghana — Prediction & Preview

Croatia enters Group L as the overwhelming favorite in this matchup, with a projected win probability of 86.5% and an expected scoreline of 2.0–0.5. Ghana faces a stern test against a side that has consistently performed at the highest level in recent tournaments. The model's confidence reflects Croatia's technical superiority and experience, though the low projected Ghana score (0.5) suggests a defensive battle may be in store rather than open play.

Zlatko Dalić's Croatia will likely deploy a possession-based approach centered on midfield control, with Luka Modrić orchestrating play from deep and Mateo Kovačić providing box-to-box energy. The defense, anchored by Dominik Livaković and featuring young talent in Joško Gvardiol alongside experienced defenders like Duje Ćaleta-Car, should prove difficult to breach. Ghana, under Carlos Queiroz, will almost certainly sit compact and look to exploit transitions; Thomas Partey's role in midfield will be critical to breaking up Croatian possession and launching counter-attacks through the pace of forwards like Kamaldeen Sulemana and Abdul Fatawu. Croatia's width will likely come through the flanks via players like Ivan Perišić, while Andrej Kramarić and Ante Budimir offer attacking focal points. Set pieces may prove Ghana's most realistic avenue to create danger, given Ghana's defensive setup will limit clear-cut open-play opportunities.

Luka Modrić remains the heartbeat of Croatia's midfield despite his age; his reading of the game and ability to find pockets of space will be fundamental to unlocking a Ghana defense intent on compactness. Joško Gvardiol's positioning and distribution from the left side of Croatia's defense could prove particularly influential in transitioning from defense to attack. For Ghana, Thomas Partey's work rate in midfield will determine whether the side can successfully press Croatia's buildup play and create turnover opportunities. Abdul Fatawu offers directness and pace on the wing that could trouble Croatia's fullbacks, while Jordan Ayew's experience and movement in the final third will be essential if Ghana is to convert any chances that materialize from defensive solidity.