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Live tournament ATP R32 WTA R32 2026-05-24 to 2026-06-07

Roland Garros 2026 — model state, contenders, previews

Live mid-tournament view from Signal Labs · Updated 2026-05-30T13:06 UTC

Headline

Sinner out R2 to Cerúndolo. Djokovic out R3 to Fonseca. Alcaraz withdrew. The men's draw is wide open.

Read our Sinner post-mortem →

Match previews

Aryna Sabalenka vs Daria Kasatkina

WTA · R32 · Clay

Aryna Sabalenka 88% · Daria Kasatkina 12%

Coco Gauff vs Anastasia Potapova

WTA · R32 · Clay

Coco Gauff 72% · Anastasia Potapova 28%

Diane Parry vs Amanda Anisimova

WTA · R32 · Clay

Diane Parry 22% · Amanda Anisimova 78%

Félix Auger-Aliassime vs Brandon Nakashima

ATP · R32 · Clay

Félix Auger-Aliassime 73% · Brandon Nakashima 27%

Victoria Mboko vs Madison Keys

WTA · R32 · Clay

Victoria Mboko 33% · Madison Keys 67%

Title contenders — model read

Men's title contenders — clay-Elo implied %

#	Player	Implied %
1	Alexander Zverev	34%
2	Casper Ruud	28.6%
3	Andrey Rublev	8.4%
4	Francisco Cerúndolo	6.2%
5	Flavio Cobolli	5.1%
6	Rafael Jódar	4.6%
7	Frances Tiafoe	2.5%
8	João Fonseca	2.4%

Women's title contenders — clay-Elo implied %

#	Player	Implied %
1	Iga Świątek	28.3%
2	Aryna Sabalenka	17.6%
3	Coco Gauff	16.5%
4	Elina Svitolina	11%
5	Mirra Andreeva	7.3%
6	Madison Keys	4.2%
7	Anastasia Potapova	3.7%
8	Marta Kostyuk	3.4%

Tournament shocks & withdrawals

Men's shocks (seeded players already out)

Seed	Player	Exited
1	Jannik Sinner	second round
5	Ben Shelton	second round
6	Daniil Medvedev	first round
7	Taylor Fritz	first round
9	Alexander Bublik	first round
12	Jiří Lehečka	first round
14	Luciano Darderi	second round
16	Valentin Vacherot	second round, walkover
20	Cameron Norrie	first round, retired
21	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	second round
22	Arthur Rinderknech	second round
23	Tomás Martín Etcheverry	first round
29	Tallon Griekspoor	first round
30	Corentin Moutet	first round
32	Ugo Humbert	second round

Women's shocks (seeded players already out)

Seed	Player	Exited
2	Elena Rybakina	second round
5	Jessica Pegula	first round
12	Linda Nosková	first round
13	Jasmine Paolini	second round
14	Ekaterina Alexandrova	first round
20	Liudmila Samsonova	first round
21	Clara Tauson	first round
23	Elise Mertens	second round
24	Leylah Fernandez	first round
26	Hailey Baptiste	second round, retired
29	Jeļena Ostapenko	second round
31	Cristina Bucșa	first round
32	Wang Xinyu	second round

Men's withdrawals (pre-tournament)

Carlos Alcaraz — right wrist injury
Lorenzo Musetti — left thigh injury

Model disclosure: Title-odds are derived from clay-Elo over remaining seeded players and notable upset winners. Illustrative only — no BO5 conversion, no age decay, no environmental factors. Not a betting recommendation.