SIGNAL LABS
Receipts, not promises

Everyone else sells you
confidence. We show you the receipts.

Every pick we've posted. Every result — wins, losses, and the flat stretches. Plus a number almost nobody in this space will put next to their picks: closing-line value, the honest test of whether our number moved the right way against the market.

This is analytics and entertainment, not a tip service and not a promise of profit. The point of this page is simple: you shouldn't have to take our word for anything. So we published the whole scoreboard, including the parts that don't flatter us.

Public Record
win rate · pushes excluded
Units (flat 1u)
return on risk
Past results are not predictive of future outcomes.
Closing-Line Value
median vs close
Settled Picks
graded, in the open
The honest read — same weight as the record

Our team-market win rate is over settled picks — but the number that actually measures skill is closing-line value, and ours is essentially flat. A flat CLV means this record sits within the range luck alone produces. So we do not claim a proven edge. What we sell is transparency — the full public record, wins and losses — never a promise that it keeps winning. Past results are not predictive of future outcomes. This is analytics and entertainment, not a promise of profit.

Two products. Two honest stories.

We don't pretend everything we do is a proven money-maker. It isn't, and anyone telling you their whole board is would be selling you the confidence, not the truth. Here's the real split.

◆ Team markets · transparency

The model's read, in the open

Sides, totals, and moneylines. What our model sees versus what the market prices — posted publicly and graded in daylight.

Record
Win rate (ex-push)
Units · ROI
CLV (median)

Straight talk: our own testing says we do not reliably clear the closing line here — CLV sits around flat. So we don't sell this as an edge. What you're buying is the model's read and a fully public record you can audit. That transparency is the product.

◆ Player props · research track

Our research track — live record building

Where our research suggests the most room versus the market. Logged the moment lines post, then graded against closing lines and the box score.

Prop lines logged
Players tracked
Outcomes graded
Live win recordBuilding

Straight talk: this is in forward validation. We're logging and grading in the open, but the live sample isn't deep enough yet to publish a win rate — so we don't. We'll show a rate only once it clears our promotion gate. No claimed number until then.

Why closing-line value is the number that matters

A hot streak can be luck. Closing-line value (CLV) is harder to fake: it measures whether the price we posted moved toward our side by the time the market closed. Positive over a large sample means our read was early; flat means we're tracking the market. We measure it on every pick, no-vig, and we publish it either way.

Team-market CLV
median percentage points vs the closing line. Around flat — consistent with a public read that tracks the market rather than consistently front-running it.
Picks measured
settled picks with a captured open-and-close pair. The rest predate CLV capture and are shown in the record but not the CLV median.
What we won't say
No locks. No guarantees.
We clamp every displayed probability inside 1–99%, never show 100/0, and never promise a result. Variance is real and losing stretches happen — you can see ours below.

Month by month — including the soft ones

The honest tell of a real record is that it isn't a straight line up. Some months carry; some are barely above water. Here's ours, unfiltered.

MonthRecordWin %UnitsROICLV (n)

Read it honestly: the early sample ran hot on a small number of picks; the more recent months are thinner margins closer to breakeven. That regression toward the market is exactly what our flat CLV predicts — and exactly why we frame team markets as transparency, not edge.

By bet type

The same record, cut by what kind of bet it was. Pushes excluded from win rate; units are flat 1u staking, ROI is units returned on units risked.

Bet typeRecordWin %UnitsROICLV med

Recent picks — nothing filtered

The last two weeks of settled team-market picks, exactly as they landed. Losses and pushes included, because hiding them is the whole trick we refuse to run.

DateConf.PickOddsCLV
Dashboard