Ottawa Senators beat Toronto Maple Leafs 3-2, a 1-goal margin. We projected Ottawa Senators 3.2-2.9 Toronto Maple Leafs and gave Ottawa Senators a 52% win probability pre-game and our favorite held.
Our NHL model rates Ottawa Senators as the more likely winner at 52%. The driver is a 77-point Elo gap (1562 vs 1485) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Toronto Maple Leafs would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game model: Ottawa Senators 52% / Toronto Maple Leafs 48%. Projected Ottawa Senators 3.2 — 2.9 Toronto Maple Leafs.
Our NHL model rates Ottawa Senators as the more likely winner at 52%. The driver is a 77-point Elo gap (1562 vs 1485) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Toronto Maple Leafs would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
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