Detroit Tigers beat New York Yankees 5-3, a 2-runs margin. We projected New York Yankees 4.5-4.4 Detroit Tigers and gave Detroit Tigers a 53% win probability pre-game and our favorite held. Our published pick hit.
Our MLB model rates Detroit Tigers as the more likely winner at 53%. The driver is a -2-point Elo gap (1500 vs 1502) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. New York Yankees would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game model: New York Yankees 47% / Detroit Tigers 53%. Projected New York Yankees 4.5 — 4.4 Detroit Tigers.
Our MLB model rates Detroit Tigers as the more likely winner at 53%. The driver is a -2-point Elo gap (1500 vs 1502) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. New York Yankees would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game call: Under 8.5 at -105 at -105. Pre-game: model 55.5% vs market 48.9% implied, a +6.6pp edge.
What happened: Total: 8 (line: under 8.5).
Bet returned +0.95u on 1u risked.
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