New York Yankees won 5-3 over Baltimore Orioles on 2026-08-19. Our pre-game pick missed. Margin of 2 runs.
Our MLB model rates Baltimore Orioles as the more likely winner at 53%. The driver is a -5-point Elo gap (1497 vs 1502) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. New York Yankees would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game model: New York Yankees 47% / Baltimore Orioles 53%. Projected New York Yankees 4.5 — 4.4 Baltimore Orioles.
Our MLB model rates Baltimore Orioles as the more likely winner at 53%. The driver is a -5-point Elo gap (1497 vs 1502) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. New York Yankees would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game call: Over 9.0 at -123 at -123. Pre-game: model 58.2% vs market 52.6% implied, a +5.6pp edge.
What happened: Total: 8 (line: over 9).
Bet returned -1.50u on 1.5u risked.
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