New York Yankees beat Washington Nationals 5-3, a 2-runs margin. We projected New York Yankees 4.5-4.4 Washington Nationals and gave New York Yankees a 51% win probability pre-game and our favorite held. Our published pick hit.
Our MLB model rates New York Yankees as the more likely winner at 51%. The driver is a 29-point Elo gap (1502 vs 1473) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Washington Nationals would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game model: New York Yankees 51% / Washington Nationals 49%. Projected New York Yankees 4.5 — 4.4 Washington Nationals.
Our MLB model rates New York Yankees as the more likely winner at 51%. The driver is a 29-point Elo gap (1502 vs 1473) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Washington Nationals would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game call: Under 9.5 at -123 at -123. Pre-game: model 57.9% vs market 52.7% implied, a +5.2pp edge.
What happened: Total: 8 (line: under 9.5).
Bet returned +1.22u on 1.5u risked.
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