HomeMLB › New York Yankees vs Washington Nationals

New York Yankees vs Washington Nationals — 2026-07-11

4:05 PM ETNationals ParkSP: Cam Schlittler vs Miles MikolasMLBFINAL
Recap

New York Yankees beat Washington Nationals 4-2, a 2-runs margin. We projected New York Yankees 4.5-4.4 Washington Nationals and gave New York Yankees a 51% win probability pre-game and our favorite held. Our published pick missed.

Model prediction (pre-game)

New York Yankees
51%
Washington Nationals
49%
Projected
Yankees 4.5 - 4.4 Nationals

What our model sees

Our MLB model rates New York Yankees as the more likely winner at 51%. The driver is a 29-point Elo gap (1502 vs 1473) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Washington Nationals would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Recent form (last 10)

New York Yankees
No recent games on file.
Washington Nationals
No recent games on file.

What we said before the game

Pre-game model: New York Yankees 51% / Washington Nationals 49%. Projected New York Yankees 4.5 — 4.4 Washington Nationals.

Our MLB model rates New York Yankees as the more likely winner at 51%. The driver is a 29-point Elo gap (1502 vs 1473) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Washington Nationals would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Our model said X. Here's what happened.

Pre-game call: Washington Nationals ML at +164 at +164. Pre-game: model 43.8% vs market 36.4% implied, a +7.5pp edge.

What happened: New York Yankees 4 @ Washington Nationals 2.

Bet returned -1.00u on 1u risked.

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