New York Yankees beat Chicago White Sox 12-2, a 10-runs margin. We projected Chicago White Sox 4.3-4.6 New York Yankees and gave New York Yankees a 62% win probability pre-game and our favorite held. Our published pick missed.
Our MLB model rates New York Yankees as the more likely winner at 62%. The driver is a 58-point Elo gap (1502 vs 1444) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Chicago White Sox would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game model: Chicago White Sox 38% / New York Yankees 62%. Projected Chicago White Sox 4.3 — 4.6 New York Yankees.
Our MLB model rates New York Yankees as the more likely winner at 62%. The driver is a 58-point Elo gap (1502 vs 1444) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Chicago White Sox would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game call: Under 8 at -115 at -115. Pre-game: model 56.9% vs market 51.1% implied, a +5.8pp edge.
What happened: Total: 14 (line: under 8).
Bet returned -1.50u on 1.5u risked.
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