HomeMLB › Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians

Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians — 2026-07-04

7:10 PM ETProgressive FieldSP: Sean Burke vs Parker MessickMLBFINAL
Recap

Chicago White Sox beat Cleveland Guardians 3-1, a 2-runs margin. We projected Chicago White Sox 4.3-4.6 Cleveland Guardians and gave Cleveland Guardians a 62% win probability pre-game but the underdog flipped it.

Model prediction (pre-game)

Chicago White Sox
38%
Cleveland Guardians
62%
Projected
Sox 4.3 - 4.6 Guardians

What our model sees

Our MLB model rates Cleveland Guardians as the more likely winner at 62%. The driver is a 58-point Elo gap (1503 vs 1444) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Chicago White Sox would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Recent form (last 10)

Chicago White Sox
No recent games on file.
Cleveland Guardians
No recent games on file.

What we said before the game

Pre-game model: Chicago White Sox 38% / Cleveland Guardians 62%. Projected Chicago White Sox 4.3 — 4.6 Cleveland Guardians.

Our MLB model rates Cleveland Guardians as the more likely winner at 62%. The driver is a 58-point Elo gap (1503 vs 1444) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Chicago White Sox would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

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