Cleveland Guardians beat Chicago White Sox 4-3, a 1-run margin. We projected Chicago White Sox 4.3-4.6 Cleveland Guardians and gave Cleveland Guardians a 62% win probability pre-game and our favorite held. Our published pick missed.
Our MLB model rates Cleveland Guardians as the more likely winner at 62%. The driver is a 58-point Elo gap (1503 vs 1444) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Chicago White Sox would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game model: Chicago White Sox 38% / Cleveland Guardians 62%. Projected Chicago White Sox 4.3 — 4.6 Cleveland Guardians.
Our MLB model rates Cleveland Guardians as the more likely winner at 62%. The driver is a 58-point Elo gap (1503 vs 1444) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Chicago White Sox would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game call: Over 8.0 at -115 at -115. Pre-game: model 57.8% vs market 51.2% implied, a +6.6pp edge.
What happened: Total: 7 (line: over 8).
Bet returned -1.50u on 1.5u risked.
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