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Chicago White Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays — 2026-07-18

3:07 PM ETRogers CentreSP: Davis Martin vs Shane BieberMLBFINAL
Recap

Toronto Blue Jays beat Chicago White Sox 1-0, a 1-run margin. We projected Chicago White Sox 4.4-4.5 Toronto Blue Jays and gave Toronto Blue Jays a 55% win probability pre-game and our favorite held.

Model prediction (pre-game)

Chicago White Sox
45%
Toronto Blue Jays
55%
Projected
Sox 4.4 - 4.5 Jays

What our model sees

Our MLB model rates Toronto Blue Jays as the more likely winner at 55%. The driver is a 8-point Elo gap (1453 vs 1444) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Chicago White Sox would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Recent form (last 10)

Chicago White Sox
No recent games on file.
Toronto Blue Jays
No recent games on file.

What we said before the game

Pre-game model: Chicago White Sox 45% / Toronto Blue Jays 55%. Projected Chicago White Sox 4.4 — 4.5 Toronto Blue Jays.

Our MLB model rates Toronto Blue Jays as the more likely winner at 55%. The driver is a 8-point Elo gap (1453 vs 1444) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Chicago White Sox would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

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