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Minnesota Twins vs New York Yankees — 2026-07-03

7:05 PM ETYankee StadiumSP: Mike Paredes vs Gerrit ColeMLBFINAL
Recap

New York Yankees beat Minnesota Twins 5-2, a 3-runs margin. We projected Minnesota Twins 4.5-4.4 New York Yankees and gave Minnesota Twins a 51% win probability pre-game but the underdog flipped it. Our published pick missed.

Model prediction (pre-game)

Minnesota Twins
51%
New York Yankees
49%
Projected
Twins 4.5 - 4.4 Yankees

What our model sees

Our MLB model rates Minnesota Twins as the more likely winner at 51%. The driver is a 31-point Elo gap (1533 vs 1502) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. New York Yankees would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Recent form (last 10)

Minnesota Twins
No recent games on file.
New York Yankees
No recent games on file.

What we said before the game

Pre-game model: Minnesota Twins 51% / New York Yankees 49%. Projected Minnesota Twins 4.5 — 4.4 New York Yankees.

Our MLB model rates Minnesota Twins as the more likely winner at 51%. The driver is a 31-point Elo gap (1533 vs 1502) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. New York Yankees would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Our model said X. Here's what happened.

Pre-game call: Minnesota Twins ML at +176 at +176. Pre-game: model 40.3% vs market 34.8% implied, a +5.5pp edge.

What happened: Minnesota Twins 2 @ New York Yankees 5.

Bet returned -1.00u on 1u risked.

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