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Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals — 2026-08-05

7:40 PM ETKauffman StadiumSP: Dean Kremer vs Noah CameronMLBFINAL
Recap

Kansas City Royals won 2-1 over Minnesota Twins on 2026-08-05. Our pre-game pick missed. Margin of 1 run.

Model prediction (pre-game)

Minnesota Twins
58%
Kansas City Royals
42%
Projected
Twins 4.6 - 4.3 Royals

What our model sees

Our MLB model rates Minnesota Twins as the more likely winner at 58%. The driver is a 78-point Elo gap (1533 vs 1455) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Kansas City Royals would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Recent form (last 10)

Minnesota Twins
No recent games on file.
Kansas City Royals
No recent games on file.

What we said before the game

Pre-game model: Minnesota Twins 58% / Kansas City Royals 42%. Projected Minnesota Twins 4.6 — 4.3 Kansas City Royals.

Our MLB model rates Minnesota Twins as the more likely winner at 58%. The driver is a 78-point Elo gap (1533 vs 1455) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Kansas City Royals would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Our model said X. Here's what happened.

Pre-game call: Over 8.5 at -120 at -120. Pre-game: model 58.2% vs market 51.9% implied, a +6.3pp edge.

What happened: Total: 3 (line: over 8.5).

Bet returned -1.50u on 1.5u risked.

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