Pittsburgh Pirates beat Minnesota Twins 10-9, a 1-run margin. We projected Minnesota Twins 4.4-4.5 Pittsburgh Pirates and gave Pittsburgh Pirates a 56% win probability pre-game and our favorite held. Our published pick missed.
Our MLB model rates Pittsburgh Pirates as the more likely winner at 56%. The driver is a 17-point Elo gap (1550 vs 1533) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Minnesota Twins would need above-baseline variance to flip the script with an edge of 6.9% vs the market line. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game model: Minnesota Twins 44% / Pittsburgh Pirates 56%. Projected Minnesota Twins 4.4 — 4.5 Pittsburgh Pirates.
Our MLB model rates Pittsburgh Pirates as the more likely winner at 56%. The driver is a 17-point Elo gap (1550 vs 1533) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Minnesota Twins would need above-baseline variance to flip the script with an edge of 6.9% vs the market line. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game call: Under 8.5 at -114 at -114. Pre-game: model 57.9% vs market 51.0% implied, a +6.9pp edge.
What happened: Total: 19 (line: under 8.5).
Bet returned -1.00u on 1u risked.
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