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Minnesota Twins vs Pittsburgh Pirates — 2026-05-30

4:05 PM ETPNC ParkSP: Bailey Ober vs Mitch KellerMLB

Model prediction

Minnesota Twins

44%

Pittsburgh Pirates

56%

Projected

Twins 4.4 - 4.5 Pirates

Edge vs market on Pittsburgh Pirates: +6.9%. Model basis: MLB totals 3-way blend (our + external + market).

What our model sees

Our MLB model rates Pittsburgh Pirates as the more likely winner at 56%. The driver is a 17-point Elo gap (1550 vs 1533) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Minnesota Twins would need above-baseline variance to flip the script with an edge of 6.9% vs the market line. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Recent form (last 10)

Minnesota Twins

No recent games on file.

Pittsburgh Pirates

No recent games on file.

Our model said X. Here's what happened.

Pre-game call: Under 8.5 at -114 at -114. Pre-game: model 57.9% vs market 51.0% implied, a +6.9pp edge.

What happened: Total: 19 (line: under 8.5).

Bet returned -1.00u on 1u risked.

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