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Detroit Tigers vs Pittsburgh Pirates — 2026-08-18

6:40 PM ETPNC ParkSP: Keider Montero vs Braxton AshcraftMLBFINAL
Recap

Pittsburgh Pirates won 4-1 over Detroit Tigers on 2026-08-18. Our pre-game pick missed. Margin of 3 runs.

Model prediction (pre-game)

Detroit Tigers
40%
Pittsburgh Pirates
60%
Projected
Tigers 4.4 - 4.5 Pirates

What our model sees

Our MLB model rates Pittsburgh Pirates as the more likely winner at 60%. The driver is a 49-point Elo gap (1550 vs 1500) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Detroit Tigers would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Recent form (last 10)

Detroit Tigers
No recent games on file.
Pittsburgh Pirates
No recent games on file.

What we said before the game

Pre-game model: Detroit Tigers 40% / Pittsburgh Pirates 60%. Projected Detroit Tigers 4.4 — 4.5 Pittsburgh Pirates.

Our MLB model rates Pittsburgh Pirates as the more likely winner at 60%. The driver is a 49-point Elo gap (1550 vs 1500) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Detroit Tigers would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Our model said X. Here's what happened.

Pre-game call: Detroit Tigers ML at +130 at +130. Pre-game: model 46.8% vs market 42.9% implied, a +3.8pp edge.

What happened: Detroit Tigers 1 @ Pittsburgh Pirates 4.

Bet returned -1.00u on 1u risked.

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