Cleveland Guardians beat Detroit Tigers 3-1, a 2-runs margin. We projected Detroit Tigers 4.4-4.5 Cleveland Guardians and gave Cleveland Guardians a 54% win probability pre-game and our favorite held. Our published pick missed.
Our MLB model rates Cleveland Guardians as the more likely winner at 54%. The driver is a 2-point Elo gap (1503 vs 1500) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Detroit Tigers would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game model: Detroit Tigers 46% / Cleveland Guardians 54%. Projected Detroit Tigers 4.4 — 4.5 Cleveland Guardians.
Our MLB model rates Cleveland Guardians as the more likely winner at 54%. The driver is a 2-point Elo gap (1503 vs 1500) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Detroit Tigers would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game call: Over 7.5 at -118 at -118. Pre-game: model 59.0% vs market 51.7% implied, a +7.2pp edge.
What happened: Total: 4 (line: over 7.5).
Bet returned -1.00u on 1u risked.
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