Detroit Tigers beat Athletics 13-1, a 12-runs margin. We projected Detroit Tigers 4.4-4.5 Athletics and gave Athletics a 58% win probability pre-game but the underdog flipped it. Our published pick hit.
Our MLB model rates Athletics as the more likely winner at 58%. The driver is a 32-point Elo gap (1533 vs 1500) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Detroit Tigers would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game model: Detroit Tigers 42% / Athletics 58%. Projected Detroit Tigers 4.4 — 4.5 Athletics.
Our MLB model rates Athletics as the more likely winner at 58%. The driver is a 32-point Elo gap (1533 vs 1500) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Detroit Tigers would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game call: Over 10.5 at -118 at -118. Pre-game: model 57.8% vs market 51.5% implied, a +6.2pp edge.
What happened: Total: 14 (line: over 10.5).
Bet returned +1.27u on 1.5u risked.
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