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Kansas City Royals vs Boston Red Sox — 2026-09-11

7:10 PM ETFenway ParkSP: Seth Lugo vs Sonny GrayMLBFINAL
Recap

Kansas City Royals won 3-2 over Boston Red Sox on 2026-09-11. Margin of 1 run.

Model prediction (pre-game)

Kansas City Royals
43%
Boston Red Sox
57%
Projected
Royals 4.4 - 4.5 Sox

What our model sees

Our MLB model rates Boston Red Sox as the more likely winner at 57%. The driver is a 27-point Elo gap (1482 vs 1455) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Kansas City Royals would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Recent form (last 10)

Kansas City Royals
No recent games on file.
Boston Red Sox
No recent games on file.

What we said before the game

Pre-game model: Kansas City Royals 43% / Boston Red Sox 57%. Projected Kansas City Royals 4.4 — 4.5 Boston Red Sox.

Our MLB model rates Boston Red Sox as the more likely winner at 57%. The driver is a 27-point Elo gap (1482 vs 1455) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Kansas City Royals would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

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