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Kansas City Royals vs Pittsburgh Pirates — 2026-09-20

1:35 PM ETPNC ParkSP: Michael Wacha vs Lake BacharMLBFINAL
Recap

Pittsburgh Pirates won 4-3 over Kansas City Royals on 2026-09-20. Our pre-game pick hit. Margin of 1 run.

Model prediction (pre-game)

Kansas City Royals
34%
Pittsburgh Pirates
66%
Projected
Royals 4.3 - 4.6 Pirates

What our model sees

Our MLB model rates Pittsburgh Pirates as the more likely winner at 66%. The driver is a 95-point Elo gap (1550 vs 1455) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Kansas City Royals would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Recent form (last 10)

Kansas City Royals
No recent games on file.
Pittsburgh Pirates
No recent games on file.

What we said before the game

Pre-game model: Kansas City Royals 34% / Pittsburgh Pirates 66%. Projected Kansas City Royals 4.3 — 4.6 Pittsburgh Pirates.

Our MLB model rates Pittsburgh Pirates as the more likely winner at 66%. The driver is a 95-point Elo gap (1550 vs 1455) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Kansas City Royals would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Our model said X. Here's what happened.

Pre-game call: Pittsburgh Pirates ML at -120 at -120. Pre-game: model 55.6% vs market 52.2% implied, a +3.4pp edge.

What happened: Kansas City Royals 3 @ Pittsburgh Pirates 4.

Bet returned +0.83u on 1u risked.

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