HomeMLB › Kansas City Royals vs New York Mets

Kansas City Royals vs New York Mets — 2026-07-09

1:10 PM ETCiti FieldSP: Michael Wacha vs Sean ManaeaMLB

Model prediction

Kansas City Royals
49%
New York Mets
51%
Projected
Royals 4.5 - 4.4 Mets

What our model sees

Our MLB model rates New York Mets as the more likely winner at 51%. The driver is a -18-point Elo gap (1437 vs 1455) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Kansas City Royals would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Recent form (last 10)

Kansas City Royals
No recent games on file.
New York Mets
No recent games on file.

Our model said X. Here's what happened.

Pre-game call: Under 9.0 at -102 at -102. Pre-game: model 55.5% vs market 48.1% implied, a +7.4pp edge.

What happened: Total: 10 (line: under 9).

Bet returned -1.00u on 1u risked.

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