New York Mets beat Kansas City Royals 7-3, a 4-runs margin. We projected Kansas City Royals 4.5-4.4 New York Mets and gave New York Mets a 51% win probability pre-game and our favorite held. Our published pick missed.
Our MLB model rates New York Mets as the more likely winner at 51%. The driver is a -18-point Elo gap (1437 vs 1455) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Kansas City Royals would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game model: Kansas City Royals 49% / New York Mets 51%. Projected Kansas City Royals 4.5 — 4.4 New York Mets.
Our MLB model rates New York Mets as the more likely winner at 51%. The driver is a -18-point Elo gap (1437 vs 1455) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Kansas City Royals would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game call: Under 9.0 at -102 at -102. Pre-game: model 55.5% vs market 48.1% implied, a +7.4pp edge.
What happened: Total: 10 (line: under 9).
Bet returned -1.00u on 1u risked.
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