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Cincinnati Reds vs Seattle Mariners — 2026-07-21

9:40 PM ETT-Mobile ParkSP: Chase Burns vs Luis CastilloMLB

Model prediction

Cincinnati Reds
51%
Seattle Mariners
49%
Projected
Reds 4.5 - 4.4 Mariners

What our model sees

Our MLB model rates Cincinnati Reds as the more likely winner at 51%. The driver is a 28-point Elo gap (1519 vs 1491) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Seattle Mariners would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Recent form (last 10)

Cincinnati Reds
No recent games on file.
Seattle Mariners
No recent games on file.

Our model said X. Here's what happened.

Pre-game call: Under 7.5 at -104 at -104. Pre-game: model 54.8% vs market 48.8% implied, a +6.0pp edge.

What happened: Total: 6 (line: under 7.5).

Bet returned +0.96u on 1u risked.

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