Cincinnati Reds won 11-5 over Arizona Diamondbacks on 2026-08-22. Our pre-game pick missed. Margin of 6 runs.
Our MLB model rates Arizona Diamondbacks as the more likely winner at 57%. The driver is a 26-point Elo gap (1544 vs 1519) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Cincinnati Reds would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game model: Cincinnati Reds 43% / Arizona Diamondbacks 57%. Projected Cincinnati Reds 4.4 — 4.5 Arizona Diamondbacks.
Our MLB model rates Arizona Diamondbacks as the more likely winner at 57%. The driver is a 26-point Elo gap (1544 vs 1519) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Cincinnati Reds would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game call: Arizona Diamondbacks ML at -166 at -166. Pre-game: model 66.8% vs market 61.7% implied, a +5.2pp edge.
What happened: Cincinnati Reds 11 @ Arizona Diamondbacks 5.
Bet returned -1.50u on 1.5u risked.
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