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Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs — 2026-08-28

2:20 PM ETWrigley FieldSP: Rhett Lowder vs David PetersonMLBFINAL
Recap

Cincinnati Reds won 10-8 over Chicago Cubs on 2026-08-28. Our pre-game pick hit. Margin of 2 runs.

Model prediction (pre-game)

Cincinnati Reds
44%
Chicago Cubs
56%
Projected
Reds 4.4 - 4.5 Cubs

What our model sees

Our MLB model rates Chicago Cubs as the more likely winner at 56%. The driver is a 15-point Elo gap (1534 vs 1519) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Cincinnati Reds would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Recent form (last 10)

Cincinnati Reds
No recent games on file.
Chicago Cubs
No recent games on file.

What we said before the game

Pre-game model: Cincinnati Reds 44% / Chicago Cubs 56%. Projected Cincinnati Reds 4.4 — 4.5 Chicago Cubs.

Our MLB model rates Chicago Cubs as the more likely winner at 56%. The driver is a 15-point Elo gap (1534 vs 1519) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Cincinnati Reds would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Our model said X. Here's what happened.

Pre-game call: Over 9.0 at +102 at +102. Pre-game: model 54.3% vs market 47.4% implied, a +6.9pp edge.

What happened: Total: 18 (line: over 9).

Bet returned +1.02u on 1u risked.

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