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Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals — 2026-07-25

7:15 PM ETBusch StadiumSP: Hunter Greene vs Andre PallanteMLBFINAL
Recap

St. Louis Cardinals won 7-0 over Cincinnati Reds on 2026-07-25. Our pre-game pick missed. Margin of 7 runs.

Model prediction (pre-game)

Cincinnati Reds
51%
St. Louis Cardinals
49%
Projected
Reds 4.5 - 4.4 Cardinals
Edge vs market on Cincinnati Reds: +6.2%. Model basis: MLB totals 3-way blend (our + external + market).

What our model sees

Our MLB model rates Cincinnati Reds as the more likely winner at 51%. The driver is a 30-point Elo gap (1519 vs 1489) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. St. Louis Cardinals would need above-baseline variance to flip the script with an edge of 6.2% vs the market line. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Recent form (last 10)

Cincinnati Reds
No recent games on file.
St. Louis Cardinals
No recent games on file.

What we said before the game

Pre-game model: Cincinnati Reds 51% / St. Louis Cardinals 49%. Projected Cincinnati Reds 4.5 — 4.4 St. Louis Cardinals.

Our MLB model rates Cincinnati Reds as the more likely winner at 51%. The driver is a 30-point Elo gap (1519 vs 1489) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. St. Louis Cardinals would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Our model said X. Here's what happened.

Pre-game call: Over 8.0 at -112 at -112. Pre-game: model 57.0% vs market 50.8% implied, a +6.2pp edge.

What happened: Total: 7 (line: over 8).

Bet returned -1.00u on 1u risked.

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