Our MLB model rates Colorado Rockies as the more likely winner at 50%. The driver is a -27-point Elo gap (1455 vs 1482) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Boston Red Sox would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.
Pre-game call: Over 11.0 at -105 at -105. Pre-game: model 56.3% vs market 48.9% implied, a +7.4pp edge.
What happened: Total: 14 (line: over 11).
Bet returned +0.95u on 1u risked.
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