HomeMLB › Boston Red Sox vs Colorado Rockies

Boston Red Sox vs Colorado Rockies — 2026-06-23

8:40 PM ETCoors FieldSP: Sonny Gray vs Sean SullivanMLBFINAL
Recap

Colorado Rockies beat Boston Red Sox 3-2, a 1-run margin. We projected Boston Red Sox 4.5-4.4 Colorado Rockies and gave Colorado Rockies a 50% win probability pre-game and our favorite held. Our published pick missed.

Model prediction (pre-game)

Boston Red Sox
50%
Colorado Rockies
50%
Projected
Sox 4.5 - 4.4 Rockies

What our model sees

Our MLB model rates Colorado Rockies as the more likely winner at 50%. The driver is a -27-point Elo gap (1455 vs 1482) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Boston Red Sox would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Recent form (last 10)

Boston Red Sox
No recent games on file.
Colorado Rockies
No recent games on file.

What we said before the game

Pre-game model: Boston Red Sox 50% / Colorado Rockies 50%. Projected Boston Red Sox 4.5 — 4.4 Colorado Rockies.

Our MLB model rates Colorado Rockies as the more likely winner at 50%. The driver is a -27-point Elo gap (1455 vs 1482) reflecting roster strength, recent results, and quality-of-opposition adjustments. Boston Red Sox would need above-baseline variance to flip the script. This page auto-updates with the final score and our recap once the game ends.

Our model said X. Here's what happened.

Pre-game call: Over 10.5 at -115 at -115. Pre-game: model 56.9% vs market 51.1% implied, a +5.8pp edge.

What happened: Total: 7 (line: over 10.5).

Bet returned -1.00u on 1u risked.

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